UNIT VI – PROJECT MANAGEMENT
1. Overview of the project
2. The Project’s proposed schedule: our final project schedule to propose for and after all analysis in this essay
3. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Duration Estimation of schedule: using Experience, Expert opinion, Mathematical derivation
Note: Deterministic estimation: a predictable, or deterministic, time estimate do not consider variation in the activity completion time
Using the mathematical deviation:
- These likelihoods range from 0 (no probability) to 1 (complete probability).
- A reasonable probabilistic estimate for an activity’s duration (completion time)
? identify three values:
? Calculation: TE (using beta distribution),
(1) the activity’s most likely duration,
(2) the activity’s most pessimistic duration,
(3) the activity’s most optimistic duration.
? TE = (a + 4m + b)/ 6
? Variance of each activity (d) , probability of completion (p. 309, 316-318) & Apendix A (Cumulative standard normal distribution – Z value & probability)
? Total project variance (sum of all variances of activities on the critical path) ? Project standard deviation (days, weeks,…)
? Normal distribution here implies that there is 50% likelihood that Project’s completion time will be less than x weeks and a 50% chance that it will be greater than x weeks
? Probability of 95% ? project completion duration with expection of 95% probability
Z = (Due date - Expected date of complection)/dp
See excel file for reference
4. An activity precedence diagram
Based on your project breakdown structure, identify Predecessors & draw diagram
- Considering the following relationship in predecessors:
o Finish to Start
o Finish to Finish
o Start to Start
o Start to Finish
- You can also use MS Project to describe more clearly
- Your narrative on network logic: predecessor, merge, burst, serial, concurrent…
- Possible paths and from which, point out the critical path
- Your narrative (comments) on (key) points
5. An activity duration table
Based on your project breakdown structure, identify duration of each task based on calculation (Point 3 above)
Your narrative on the duration
6. A network diagram and Gantt charts
- Draw AON diagram with Forward pass & Backward pass - calculate & explain how you make it, using your own language to describe your notes on serial or concurrent activities, at merge or burst point,…
E.g: in the text book, p. 313: Principally, there are three steps for applying the forward pass
1. Add all activity times along each path as we move through the network (ES + Dur = EF).
2. Carry the EF time to the activity nodes immediately succeeding the recently completed node. That EF becomes the ES of the next node, unless the succeeding node is a merge point.
3. At a merge point, the largest preceding EF becomes the ES for that node.
p. 315 to select the LF for these burst activities: the rules for the backward pass:
1. Subtract activity times along each path as you move through the network (LF - Dur = LS).
2. Carry back the LS time to the activity nodes immediately preceding the successor node.
That LS becomes the LF of the next node, unless the preceding node is a burst point.
3. In the case of a burst point, the smallest succeeding LS becomes the LF for that node.
- Identify all possible paths with their schedule length
- Critical path, slack/ float, negative float, path float (cannot borrow the float if the result is conflict with critical path)
- Also use MS Project – Gantt Charts to describe more clearly
- Your narrative (comments)
7. Identify the project’s trade-offs of compressing/crashing activities
- Describe your options to crash activities of the project.
- See p. 340-348 text book for more ideas.
- 5 options to crash to choose (p. 340-343)
- What costs are associated with accelerating other project activities?
- What are the gains versus the losses in accelerating this activity?
Calculating the cost & gains per each option to support your ideas.
The excel file for reference
8. A conclusion
- Your narrative or more analysis: using CSU library per request.
- Sources of information
Prepared by Vo Thuy Ngoc
HCMC, March 8, 2019