Assessment item 1—Assignment 1
Due date: 11:00pm AEST, Friday, Week 6
All students are to submit electronically – max file size is 2Mb. ASSESSMENT
Weighting: 40% 1
Length: Refer to individual section requirements
This assessment item relates to course learning outcomes numbers 1, 2 and 6 as stated on the course profile.
Part A (maximum 1500 words) (20%)
This part emphasises on the use of a DSS tool, and students are required to demonstrate proficiency with Visual DSS™ (a DSS development language/DSS generator).
Solve Questions 1, 2 and 3 using VISUAL DSS™.
Ciscomic Pty Ltd is a software development company located in Sydney. The company is planning to introduce a new mobile application software into the market. However, in recent times the company has made some bad investment decisions which in turn have impacted their profit bottom line. Thus the senior management requires a thorough analysis of every new product that is introduced to the market. As a senior business analyst, you have been appointed to advise the senior management on the feasibility of the new product.
An initial analysis conducted by other analysts for the product claim the anticipated net present value (NPV) for the new product line is over $2 million and they have recommended the manufacture of the product based on this assessment.
Your task is to use a decision support system (DSS) and report to the senior management on whether the claim of the NPV being over $2.5 million is correct or incorrect using the relevant information given in Table 1.
Table 1: Summarised product details
Cost of production: $31.00 per unit
Annual overhead cost: $210,000
Initial investment needed: $1,850,000
Estimated selling price: $55.00 per unit
Market at time of introduction: 420,000 units per year
Market growth: 15% per year
Market share: Most likely 10%
Assumed economically useful lifetime: 4 years, commencing 2017
Discount rate used to analyse new product proposals is 12%
You need to assume that the overhead and initial investment occurs at the START of the respective year, profit occurs at the END of the year and initial investment was only applicable to the first year.
1. Develop a decision support model using Visual DSS using the variables described above. Include comments within your Visual DSS model to explain the variables and your calculations.
2. Based on the result of your model, what is the net present value (NPV)? Explain whether the claim regarding the NPV being above $2 million is correct or incorrect.
• Note that overhead and initial investment both occur at the START of the respective year, and profit occurs at the END of the year.
• You should use the correct NPV formula in Visual DSS. Use the ‘Help’ feature within the Visual DSS application and Visual DSS tutorial to learn more about the correct NPV formula which is applicable to the scenario described in Question 1.
• Initial investment is a start up cost applicable to the first period only (i.e. 2017).
• The NPV is only relevant for the first period (i.e. 2017) for the purpose of decision making – so only report it for that period. Using NPV(0) in Visual DSS will allow you to achieve this.
You are now asked to analyse the variations on the impact of market share, cost of producing, overheads and initial investment on the NPV. You need to conduct a risk analysis based on the information below:
a) Market share: could be as low as 5% or as high as 15%, but is most likely to be 10%. The distribution could be represented using a triangular distribution.
b) Unit costs can be described by normal distribution – mean of $30.00 and standard deviation of $5.00.
c) Overhead: could be as low as $150,000 per year or as high as $315,000 per year, but is most likely to be $210,000 per year. The distribution could be represented using a triangular distribution.
d) Initial investment requirements can be uniformly distributed between $1,500,000 and $2,500,000.
The senior management decided on the following decision criteria:
Decision criteria: The company is unwilling to proceed if there is a 20% or greater chance that the net present value will be less than $1,000,000 (1 million).
1. You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis).
2. Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the above question. Based on results and the decision criteria, explain whether the senior management should accept or reject the proposed production of the product.
When the above analysis reached the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of your company, he became very concerned about the assumptions made in the model. His experience has taught him to consider the uncertainty associated with selling price and production costs more thoroughly. He required further analysis to be done by incorporating the following uncertainties to Question 1 model:
a) Selling price: uniformly distributed between $75 and $45.
b) Unit costs: normally distributed, mean of $30.00, standard deviation of $10.00.
He applied different decision criteria and was willing to go ahead with the product proposal if there was at least an 80% chance the net present value would be greater than $1,000,000.
1. You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis). Based on your results determine whether the CEO will proceed under these uncertainties.
2. Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the question. Based on results and the decision criteria, will the CEO accept or reject the proposed production of the product?
PART B: (maximum 1500 words) (10%)
You are required to select and examine an existing company that is currently using business intelligence as part of its business strategy. In order for you to meet the requirements of this Part B, you need to answer the following questions:
1. Discuss in detail what tools and techniques are used by the company to support its business operations. Provide examples on how those tools and techniques are used in the company.
2. What improvements/enhancements can be observed from this company as compared to other companies within the same industry?
3. How do you think business intelligence provides values to your chosen company and its customers?
4. What are the main factors that influence the success of business intelligence in the company?
You need to use at least three (3) academic references in your analysis.
Part C: (maximum 1000 words) (10%)
You are required to write a report on the reasons for the development of the business intelligence project and outcomes based on the implementation of the business intelligence project from a case study “Growing Delighted Customers in the Digital Ecosystem: Customer-Centricity at Make It Work Inc.” (maximum 1,000 words).
Submission of Assessments
The assignment is to be submitted as 4 separate files using the electronic assignment submission system that can be accessed from the link on the course website. The four files to be submitted are as follows:
1. The Word document with the answers to the questions for Part A, Part B and Part C.
2. The three Visual DSS files created for Part A (Questions 1, 2 and 3). Please ensure that these files are named clearly as Agt1_PartA.dss, Agt1_PartB.dss and Agt1_PartC.dss respectively. No zip file is allowed for the submission.