Midterm Due: September 04, by 7:00p.m. Total Points: 30
Instructions to Follow:
1. (10 marks) Determine the minimum cost schedule for CORONA CARE Hospital project by CRASHING it accordingly. Experts estimated that the project indirect costs are $8000 per week. In addition, after week 65, the board imposes on CORONA CRE Hospital project management a penalty cost of $20000 per week if the hospital is not fully operational. With a critical path completion time of 69 weeks, the hospital faces potentially large penalty costs unless the schedule is changed. Foe every week that the project is shortened to week 65, the hospital saves one week of penalty and indirect costs or $28000. For reductions beyond week 65, the savings are only the weekly indirect costs of $8000.
If the penalty cost and the indirect cost are giving you a headache, feel free to ignore them completely.
For this project, the Critical path is [A(12) C(10) G(35) J(6) K(6)] with a length of 69. This is the only path you need to play the crashing game with. I told you that I was your best friend and still am!
Activity Normal Time (NT) Normal Cost (NC)
$ Crash Time (CT) Crash Cost (CC)
$ Maximum Time Reduction (wk) Cost of Crashing per week
A 12 12000 11 13000 1 1000
B 9 50000 7 64000 2 7000
C 10 4000 5 7000 5 600
D 10 16000 8 20000 2 2000
E 24 120000 14 200000 10 8000
F 10 10000 6 16000 4 1500
G 35 500000 25 530000 10 3000
H 40 1200000 35 1260000 5 12000
I 15 40000 10 52500 5 2500
J 6 10000 3 13000 3 1000
K 6 30000 5 34000 1 4000
TOTAL 1992000 2209500
2. (10 marks) Alif Co. has seen a marked increase in the number of online competitors over the past two years. Many of these companies already engage in aggressive social, SEO, and marketing campaigns, and the result is that many of Alif Co.’s former customers are now moving on to better-advertised options.
Alif Co. could combat this issue by instigating their own digital marketing campaign targeted towards their customer demographic. The resulting campaign would be targeted with keywords researched to instigate high-conversion clicks from those likely to purchase from Alif Co., therefore driving sales up.
The campaign should include a multi-prong digital marketing strategy including PPC, SEO, email marketing, and Social Media, with a minimum of a 12-month management, research, and analytics program to ensure its success.
An advertising project manager developed the network diagram for a new advertising campaign. In addition, the manager gathered the time information for each activity as shown in the following table: (Time estimates are in weeks)
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immediate predecessor(s)
A 1 4 7 -
B 2 6 7 -
C 3 3 6 B
D 6 13 14 A
E 3 6 12 A, C
F 6 8 16 B
G 1 5 6 E, F
a. Calculate the expected time and variance for each activity to determine the project’s expected completion time and possible dispersion (Standard Deviation).
b. Calculate the activity slacks and determine the critical activities using the expected activity times.
c. What is the probability of completing the project within 27 weeks? How much risk is associated to the promise of wrapping up the project by 27 weeks?
3. (10 marks) The 2019–20 corona virus pandemic was confirmed to have spread to Bangladesh on March 2020. The first three known cases were reported on 7 March 2020 by the country's epidemiology institute IEDCR. Infections stayed low until the end of March but saw steep rise in April. In the week ending 11 April, new cases in Bangladesh grew 1155 percent, the highest in Asia, compared to its close rival Indonesia with 186 percent. As of 15 April, there are a total of 1231 confirmed cases, 49 recoveries, and 50 deaths in the country.
Experts criticized that not enough tests were conducted in the country that has a population of over 160 million. Newspaper reports and social media continued to report about additional deaths of patients with COVID-19 symptoms. Some of the deceased were treated at COVID-19 isolation centers at hospitals in the districts and others were denied treatment, though no tests were conducted to confirm contagion. For a long time, testing was centralized to only Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) in the capital Dhaka, although patients with symptoms were reported all around the country.
The data below was issued by the IEDCR, as of 13th April 2020.
Day Units Tested Positive Cases Day Unites Tested Positive Cases
April 2 141 2 April 10 1184 209
3 513 5 11 1200 289
4 434 9 12 1387 303
5 367 18 13 1570 382
6 468 35 14 2500 ?
7 655 41 15 3500 ?
8 918 54 16 4500 ?
9 1097 112
a. Apply Naïve with trend method to forecast positive cases from April 3 to April 14.
b. Apply weighted moving average to predict the demands for April 5 to April 14. Consider n to be 3 and weights of 0.50, 0.30 and 0.20, with 0.50 applying to the most recent positive cases.
c. Use the exponential smoothing method with a= 0.4 to forecast the number of positive cases for April 4 to April 14. Choose initial forecast judiciously.
d. Apply Regression Analysis Model to forecast positive cases from April 2 to April 16 considering Units Tested to be Independent variable.
e. Considering the existing data, which forecasting technique will you recommend for future days amongst all the methods you tried above (from a through d)? Calculate the tracking signal as of the end of April 13. What can you say about the performance of your forecasting method?
Stay Home! Stay Safe!!