UNIT VI – PROJECT MANAGEMENT

1. Overview of the project

2. The Project’s proposed schedule: our final project schedule to propose for and after all analysis in this essay

3. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Duration Estimation of schedule: using Experience, Expert opinion, Mathematical derivation

Note: Deterministic estimation: a predictable, or deterministic, time estimate do not consider variation in the activity completion time

Using the mathematical deviation:

- These likelihoods range from 0 (no probability) to 1 (complete probability).

- A reasonable probabilistic estimate for an activity’s duration (completion time)

? identify three values:

? Calculation: TE (using beta distribution),

(1) the activity’s most likely duration,

(2) the activity’s most pessimistic duration,

(3) the activity’s most optimistic duration.

? TE = (a + 4m + b)/ 6

? Variance of each activity (d) , probability of completion (p. 309, 316-318) & Apendix A (Cumulative standard normal distribution – Z value & probability)

? Total project variance (sum of all variances of activities on the critical path) ? Project standard deviation (days, weeks,…)

? Normal distribution here implies that there is 50% likelihood that Project’s completion time will be less than x weeks and a 50% chance that it will be greater than x weeks

? Probability of 95% ? project completion duration with expection of 95% probability

? Formula:

Z = (Due date - Expected date of complection)/dp

See excel file for reference

4. An activity precedence diagram

Based on your project breakdown structure, identify Predecessors & draw diagram

- Considering the following relationship in predecessors:

o Finish to Start

o Finish to Finish

o Start to Start

o Start to Finish

- You can also use MS Project to describe more clearly

- Your narrative on network logic: predecessor, merge, burst, serial, concurrent…

- Possible paths and from which, point out the critical path

- Your narrative (comments) on (key) points

5. An activity duration table

Based on your project breakdown structure, identify duration of each task based on calculation (Point 3 above)

Your narrative on the duration

6. A network diagram and Gantt charts

- Draw AON diagram with Forward pass & Backward pass - calculate & explain how you make it, using your own language to describe your notes on serial or concurrent activities, at merge or burst point,…

E.g: in the text book, p. 313: Principally, there are three steps for applying the forward pass

1. Add all activity times along each path as we move through the network (ES + Dur = EF).

2. Carry the EF time to the activity nodes immediately succeeding the recently completed node. That EF becomes the ES of the next node, unless the succeeding node is a merge point.

3. At a merge point, the largest preceding EF becomes the ES for that node.

p. 315 to select the LF for these burst activities: the rules for the backward pass:

1. Subtract activity times along each path as you move through the network (LF - Dur = LS).

2. Carry back the LS time to the activity nodes immediately preceding the successor node.

That LS becomes the LF of the next node, unless the preceding node is a burst point.

3. In the case of a burst point, the smallest succeeding LS becomes the LF for that node.

- Identify all possible paths with their schedule length

- Critical path, slack/ float, negative float, path float (cannot borrow the float if the result is conflict with critical path)

- Also use MS Project – Gantt Charts to describe more clearly

- Your narrative (comments)

7. Identify the project’s trade-offs of compressing/crashing activities

- Describe your options to crash activities of the project.

- See p. 340-348 text book for more ideas.

- 5 options to crash to choose (p. 340-343)

- What costs are associated with accelerating other project activities?

- What are the gains versus the losses in accelerating this activity?

Calculating the cost & gains per each option to support your ideas.

The excel file for reference

8. A conclusion

Note:

- Your narrative or more analysis: using CSU library per request.

- Sources of information

Prepared by Vo Thuy Ngoc

HCMC, March 8, 2019

1. Overview of the project

2. The Project’s proposed schedule: our final project schedule to propose for and after all analysis in this essay

3. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Duration Estimation of schedule: using Experience, Expert opinion, Mathematical derivation

Note: Deterministic estimation: a predictable, or deterministic, time estimate do not consider variation in the activity completion time

Using the mathematical deviation:

- These likelihoods range from 0 (no probability) to 1 (complete probability).

- A reasonable probabilistic estimate for an activity’s duration (completion time)

? identify three values:

? Calculation: TE (using beta distribution),

(1) the activity’s most likely duration,

(2) the activity’s most pessimistic duration,

(3) the activity’s most optimistic duration.

? TE = (a + 4m + b)/ 6

? Variance of each activity (d) , probability of completion (p. 309, 316-318) & Apendix A (Cumulative standard normal distribution – Z value & probability)

? Total project variance (sum of all variances of activities on the critical path) ? Project standard deviation (days, weeks,…)

? Normal distribution here implies that there is 50% likelihood that Project’s completion time will be less than x weeks and a 50% chance that it will be greater than x weeks

? Probability of 95% ? project completion duration with expection of 95% probability

? Formula:

Z = (Due date - Expected date of complection)/dp

See excel file for reference

4. An activity precedence diagram

Based on your project breakdown structure, identify Predecessors & draw diagram

- Considering the following relationship in predecessors:

o Finish to Start

o Finish to Finish

o Start to Start

o Start to Finish

- You can also use MS Project to describe more clearly

- Your narrative on network logic: predecessor, merge, burst, serial, concurrent…

- Possible paths and from which, point out the critical path

- Your narrative (comments) on (key) points

5. An activity duration table

Based on your project breakdown structure, identify duration of each task based on calculation (Point 3 above)

Your narrative on the duration

6. A network diagram and Gantt charts

- Draw AON diagram with Forward pass & Backward pass - calculate & explain how you make it, using your own language to describe your notes on serial or concurrent activities, at merge or burst point,…

E.g: in the text book, p. 313: Principally, there are three steps for applying the forward pass

1. Add all activity times along each path as we move through the network (ES + Dur = EF).

2. Carry the EF time to the activity nodes immediately succeeding the recently completed node. That EF becomes the ES of the next node, unless the succeeding node is a merge point.

3. At a merge point, the largest preceding EF becomes the ES for that node.

p. 315 to select the LF for these burst activities: the rules for the backward pass:

1. Subtract activity times along each path as you move through the network (LF - Dur = LS).

2. Carry back the LS time to the activity nodes immediately preceding the successor node.

That LS becomes the LF of the next node, unless the preceding node is a burst point.

3. In the case of a burst point, the smallest succeeding LS becomes the LF for that node.

- Identify all possible paths with their schedule length

- Critical path, slack/ float, negative float, path float (cannot borrow the float if the result is conflict with critical path)

- Also use MS Project – Gantt Charts to describe more clearly

- Your narrative (comments)

7. Identify the project’s trade-offs of compressing/crashing activities

- Describe your options to crash activities of the project.

- See p. 340-348 text book for more ideas.

- 5 options to crash to choose (p. 340-343)

- What costs are associated with accelerating other project activities?

- What are the gains versus the losses in accelerating this activity?

Calculating the cost & gains per each option to support your ideas.

The excel file for reference

8. A conclusion

Note:

- Your narrative or more analysis: using CSU library per request.

- Sources of information

Prepared by Vo Thuy Ngoc

HCMC, March 8, 2019

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