25721 Investment Management Assignment

Spring 2015

An Application of the Single Index Model

Preamble

This individual assignment is worth 15% of your final grade. The aim of this project is to expose the

student to:

(i) acquiring data;

(ii) contemplating subtleties in financial data such as stock splits, dividend payments and

yield differences on short-dated debt instruments in Australia;

(iii) applying simple regression techniques and interpreting the output in terms of a

financial model (SIM) as a template for the more complex factor models used in industry;

(iv) Understanding the risks in model driven trading.

This project provides an opportunity to sharpen your report writing skills and improve abilities to explain

complex ideas. The due date for this assignment 5pm, Friday 9 October, 2015.

Task list

You should complete all eight tasks below before writing your report. You should document your

work for each task and maintain your Excel spreadsheet with a view to writing the final report.

Task 1

Go to the ASIC website (http://www.asic.gov.au/) and read the ‘About ASIC’ section so you know a little

about what they do. Now go to this part of the ASIC website and read Regulatory Guide 196;

http://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/regulatory-guides/rg-196-short-selling/ (if this

link doesn’t work with a click then copy and paste it into your browser).

Task 2

Go to the ASIC website section under http://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/markets/short-selling/. Click

on ‘View table of short position reports’. Within the table titled ‘Daily aggregate short position per stock’

find and download the daily short sales data (CSV file) for July 6, 2015. Save it as a new spreadsheet

called AsicSortedShortSales. Sort this data so that the stocks that have the highest number of reported

short positions are at the top (see ‘Reported Short Positions’ column) and save your work.

Task 3

Visit http://help.yahoo.com/kb/index?page=content&y=PROD_FIN&locale=en_US&id=SLN2311 and read

about how stock prices (and therefore returns) are adjusted for splits and dividends. The approach here is

used by most data providers.

You will be working with two stocks for the assignment. One is from your AsicSortedShortSales

spreadsheet the other will be BHP.AX.and number 7 stock MYER HOLDINGS LTD ORDINARY MYR

You will collect monthly price data for both your stocks from au.finance.yahoo.com. For this

assignment we will be using price data spanning JULY 2013 TO JULY 2015 (a total of 24 months

of return data). Save this data in an Excel file called ‘SIM’. If your stock has data beginning after

JULY 2013 then please use the data that is available up to JULY 2015. In this case you should

investigate why this might be.

Place the data for your two stocks in different tabs in your SIM spreadsheet and label the tabs by

their stock code. You will need to sort the data by the date column (oldest to newest).

Tip: Here is an example of collecting the data for NAB (NAB.AX). You will need to change the dates and the

stock. The data file can be downloaded from the link at the bottom of the following web

page: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=NAB.AX&a=00&b=29&c=1988&d=02&e=27&f=2013&g=m

Task 4

Now determine the monthly return series for both stocks using the adjusted close prices. Keep this

data within the tab. You can delete the Open, High, Low, Close and Volume data as we won’t be

using this in the assignment. What is the mean and standard deviation of the returns for your two

stocks?

Task 5

Visit yahoo finance again and download the monthly price data for the S&P/ASX-200 Index (^AXJO).

Place this data in a separate tab on your spreadsheet and calculate the monthly returns.

Task 6

Now go to the RBA’s website (rba.gov.au) and download the monthly yields for bank-accepted-bills.

Visit http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html#interest_rates and choose ‘Interest Rates

and Yields – Money Market – Monthly F1 [XLS]’

Ideally we would use this one-month Treasury Note data (FIRMMTN1) but there are gaps in this

data. So we will use the 30 day bank-accepted bill as a proxy (FIRMMBAB30). Note that these rates

are quotes as per annum rates.

Task 7

What are the differences between a bank-accepted-bill (BAB) and an Aust. Gov. Treasury note?

Which would you expect to have the higher yield and why? What happens to these yields in a

banking crisis? Can you find evidence on the RBA website to support your view?

Task 8

Conduct a Single Index Model regression for your two stocks return using the 30-day BAB as the riskfree

rate. Use the S&P/ASX-200 Index as the market index. You should take care to make sure the

data is correctly aligned. The Bank Bill yields are expressed as a percentage per annum. These will

need to be converted into a monthly rate (divide by 1200).2

Include the regression results in each tab

along with a graph of the SCL. You can get Excel to output the graph in the regression stage.

1

Here are two more examples on selecting the correct data for this assignment. If a student has the student

number 9856253 then the last digit is 3 so she would use the third (3rd) stock. Now, the second last digit is odd

(5 is odd) so she would also use BHP.AX. Here is another example; if a student has the student number

9687800 then the last digit is zero so he would use the tenth (10th) stock. The second last digit is zero (an even

number) so he would use NAB.AX.

2

The BAB yields are provided as % p.a.. We divide by 12 to make it a monthly result, and by 100 to put it in

decimal form – hence the 1200.

3

Form a table in a new worksheet called ‘Results’ that has the columns labelled (alpha, beta, standard

error,

) and has rows labelled for your two stocks. Compare and discuss the alphas and betas you

have found. The fact sheet for the S&P/ASX-200 index (found at http://au.spindices.com/) might be

useful.

Your report

Your written report must not exceed FIVE A4 pages including the cover page. A template for the

cover page will be provided on UTS online. Fonts must not be smaller than 11pt and the margins

should be conventional (2.54cm). Your report MUST be structured as follows and address the

questions raised.

1. Introduction (1 mark)

Write an explanation of what your report does and briefly summarise the findings. This MUST NOT

exceed 50 words and cannot contain formulae.

2. Stocks Analysed (1 marks)

Create a table containing the TWO stocks. Your table should identify the stock code, company name,

relevant industry (sector) groups, the average return and the standard deviation of the returns.

Which of your two stocks do you think is the most inefficiently priced? Why?

3. Data and the Risk-Free Asset (2 marks)

Note the sources for your data and how adjustments for dividends and stock splits have been made.

You should also discuss the suitability of the instrument you have used for the risk-free asset.

4. The Single Index Model (2 marks)

Write down the SIM and fully define/explain all terms.

5. Regression Results and Interpretation (3 marks)

Present the table from task 8. The table must be self-contained, clear, and documented. This means

there should be no need to look outside the table in order to interpret the results. Compare and

discuss the alphas and betas you have found. Determine the systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk in

each of your stocks. Interpret the quality of your regressions. Why might the betas differ to the

betas found from other sources (such as Bloomberg)?

6. Trade Idea and Risks (4 marks)

Consider the stock that you are working with that appeared on the sorted reported position list.

Assuming no margin requirements, explain how you might construct a statistical arbitrage between

this stock and an S&P/ASX-200 index ETF. Your answer must show the weights for all investments

and discuss the risks on this trade. All working must be presented.

The final two marks will be awarded for presentation and clarity and how closely you have followed

the instructions (2 marks).

How and what to submit

You must submit your work through UTS online. An electronic system will be used for the detection

of plagiarism. The due date is 5pm, Friday ? KÐlŽdG?, 2015. In fairness to all students, late

submissions will attract a reduction of 5 marks per day. You must submit:

(i) One Excel spreadsheet which must clearly identify all data and results. It should contain the

data used in the written report. It should support your report and will be considered in the

presentation component of the assessment. Your report however cannot ask the reader to

4

‘see spreadsheet.’ Failure to submit the Excel spreadsheet that supports your work will

result in a 50% reduction in your mark.

(ii) One written report in both Word and PDF format. Any graphs you have in the written

report must be contained within the Excel spreadsheet.

Marking scheme

This marking scheme will be applied in marking your assignment.

Item Mark

1. Introduction /1

2. Stocks Analysed /1

3. Data and the Risk-Free Asset /2

4. A Single Factor Model /2

5. Regression Results and Interpretation /3

6. Trade Idea and Risks /4

Presentation & Clarity /1

Followed instructions /1

If spreadsheet not submitted deduct 50%.

If data not correctly sourced deduct 50%

If late, subtract 5 marks per day

Total /15

____________________________

Spring 2015

An Application of the Single Index Model

Preamble

This individual assignment is worth 15% of your final grade. The aim of this project is to expose the

student to:

(i) acquiring data;

(ii) contemplating subtleties in financial data such as stock splits, dividend payments and

yield differences on short-dated debt instruments in Australia;

(iii) applying simple regression techniques and interpreting the output in terms of a

financial model (SIM) as a template for the more complex factor models used in industry;

(iv) Understanding the risks in model driven trading.

This project provides an opportunity to sharpen your report writing skills and improve abilities to explain

complex ideas. The due date for this assignment 5pm, Friday 9 October, 2015.

Task list

You should complete all eight tasks below before writing your report. You should document your

work for each task and maintain your Excel spreadsheet with a view to writing the final report.

Task 1

Go to the ASIC website (http://www.asic.gov.au/) and read the ‘About ASIC’ section so you know a little

about what they do. Now go to this part of the ASIC website and read Regulatory Guide 196;

http://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/regulatory-guides/rg-196-short-selling/ (if this

link doesn’t work with a click then copy and paste it into your browser).

Task 2

Go to the ASIC website section under http://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/markets/short-selling/. Click

on ‘View table of short position reports’. Within the table titled ‘Daily aggregate short position per stock’

find and download the daily short sales data (CSV file) for July 6, 2015. Save it as a new spreadsheet

called AsicSortedShortSales. Sort this data so that the stocks that have the highest number of reported

short positions are at the top (see ‘Reported Short Positions’ column) and save your work.

Task 3

Visit http://help.yahoo.com/kb/index?page=content&y=PROD_FIN&locale=en_US&id=SLN2311 and read

about how stock prices (and therefore returns) are adjusted for splits and dividends. The approach here is

used by most data providers.

You will be working with two stocks for the assignment. One is from your AsicSortedShortSales

spreadsheet the other will be BHP.AX.and number 7 stock MYER HOLDINGS LTD ORDINARY MYR

You will collect monthly price data for both your stocks from au.finance.yahoo.com. For this

assignment we will be using price data spanning JULY 2013 TO JULY 2015 (a total of 24 months

of return data). Save this data in an Excel file called ‘SIM’. If your stock has data beginning after

JULY 2013 then please use the data that is available up to JULY 2015. In this case you should

investigate why this might be.

Place the data for your two stocks in different tabs in your SIM spreadsheet and label the tabs by

their stock code. You will need to sort the data by the date column (oldest to newest).

Tip: Here is an example of collecting the data for NAB (NAB.AX). You will need to change the dates and the

stock. The data file can be downloaded from the link at the bottom of the following web

page: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=NAB.AX&a=00&b=29&c=1988&d=02&e=27&f=2013&g=m

Task 4

Now determine the monthly return series for both stocks using the adjusted close prices. Keep this

data within the tab. You can delete the Open, High, Low, Close and Volume data as we won’t be

using this in the assignment. What is the mean and standard deviation of the returns for your two

stocks?

Task 5

Visit yahoo finance again and download the monthly price data for the S&P/ASX-200 Index (^AXJO).

Place this data in a separate tab on your spreadsheet and calculate the monthly returns.

Task 6

Now go to the RBA’s website (rba.gov.au) and download the monthly yields for bank-accepted-bills.

Visit http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html#interest_rates and choose ‘Interest Rates

and Yields – Money Market – Monthly F1 [XLS]’

Ideally we would use this one-month Treasury Note data (FIRMMTN1) but there are gaps in this

data. So we will use the 30 day bank-accepted bill as a proxy (FIRMMBAB30). Note that these rates

are quotes as per annum rates.

Task 7

What are the differences between a bank-accepted-bill (BAB) and an Aust. Gov. Treasury note?

Which would you expect to have the higher yield and why? What happens to these yields in a

banking crisis? Can you find evidence on the RBA website to support your view?

Task 8

Conduct a Single Index Model regression for your two stocks return using the 30-day BAB as the riskfree

rate. Use the S&P/ASX-200 Index as the market index. You should take care to make sure the

data is correctly aligned. The Bank Bill yields are expressed as a percentage per annum. These will

need to be converted into a monthly rate (divide by 1200).2

Include the regression results in each tab

along with a graph of the SCL. You can get Excel to output the graph in the regression stage.

1

Here are two more examples on selecting the correct data for this assignment. If a student has the student

number 9856253 then the last digit is 3 so she would use the third (3rd) stock. Now, the second last digit is odd

(5 is odd) so she would also use BHP.AX. Here is another example; if a student has the student number

9687800 then the last digit is zero so he would use the tenth (10th) stock. The second last digit is zero (an even

number) so he would use NAB.AX.

2

The BAB yields are provided as % p.a.. We divide by 12 to make it a monthly result, and by 100 to put it in

decimal form – hence the 1200.

3

Form a table in a new worksheet called ‘Results’ that has the columns labelled (alpha, beta, standard

error,

) and has rows labelled for your two stocks. Compare and discuss the alphas and betas you

have found. The fact sheet for the S&P/ASX-200 index (found at http://au.spindices.com/) might be

useful.

Your report

Your written report must not exceed FIVE A4 pages including the cover page. A template for the

cover page will be provided on UTS online. Fonts must not be smaller than 11pt and the margins

should be conventional (2.54cm). Your report MUST be structured as follows and address the

questions raised.

1. Introduction (1 mark)

Write an explanation of what your report does and briefly summarise the findings. This MUST NOT

exceed 50 words and cannot contain formulae.

2. Stocks Analysed (1 marks)

Create a table containing the TWO stocks. Your table should identify the stock code, company name,

relevant industry (sector) groups, the average return and the standard deviation of the returns.

Which of your two stocks do you think is the most inefficiently priced? Why?

3. Data and the Risk-Free Asset (2 marks)

Note the sources for your data and how adjustments for dividends and stock splits have been made.

You should also discuss the suitability of the instrument you have used for the risk-free asset.

4. The Single Index Model (2 marks)

Write down the SIM and fully define/explain all terms.

5. Regression Results and Interpretation (3 marks)

Present the table from task 8. The table must be self-contained, clear, and documented. This means

there should be no need to look outside the table in order to interpret the results. Compare and

discuss the alphas and betas you have found. Determine the systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk in

each of your stocks. Interpret the quality of your regressions. Why might the betas differ to the

betas found from other sources (such as Bloomberg)?

6. Trade Idea and Risks (4 marks)

Consider the stock that you are working with that appeared on the sorted reported position list.

Assuming no margin requirements, explain how you might construct a statistical arbitrage between

this stock and an S&P/ASX-200 index ETF. Your answer must show the weights for all investments

and discuss the risks on this trade. All working must be presented.

The final two marks will be awarded for presentation and clarity and how closely you have followed

the instructions (2 marks).

How and what to submit

You must submit your work through UTS online. An electronic system will be used for the detection

of plagiarism. The due date is 5pm, Friday ? KÐlŽdG?, 2015. In fairness to all students, late

submissions will attract a reduction of 5 marks per day. You must submit:

(i) One Excel spreadsheet which must clearly identify all data and results. It should contain the

data used in the written report. It should support your report and will be considered in the

presentation component of the assessment. Your report however cannot ask the reader to

4

‘see spreadsheet.’ Failure to submit the Excel spreadsheet that supports your work will

result in a 50% reduction in your mark.

(ii) One written report in both Word and PDF format. Any graphs you have in the written

report must be contained within the Excel spreadsheet.

Marking scheme

This marking scheme will be applied in marking your assignment.

Item Mark

1. Introduction /1

2. Stocks Analysed /1

3. Data and the Risk-Free Asset /2

4. A Single Factor Model /2

5. Regression Results and Interpretation /3

6. Trade Idea and Risks /4

Presentation & Clarity /1

Followed instructions /1

If spreadsheet not submitted deduct 50%.

If data not correctly sourced deduct 50%

If late, subtract 5 marks per day

Total /15

____________________________

Business Plan ProposalThat is the research process that anyone establishing a business would undertake. The proposal template is on Moodle, this should be utilised and should be between 1000 and 1,200...Cover PageExecutive SummaryTable of Contents1. Introduction2. DefinitionsKotlerOther definitions (compare & contrast)3. ArticleRole of marketers4. So, what could be the appropriate definition of MKT...Master of Science in Financial Technologytopic should be related to my courseBlockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies-National College of IrelandMasters in Science in Data Analytics (MSCDAD_A)Masters in Science in Data Analytics (MSCDAD_B) Postgraduate Diploma in Science in Data Analytics (PGDDA_SEPOL)Database and Analytics...In this activity you will use the IQ.txt data file and StatCrunch to illustrate your understanding of a variety of concepts and skills learned thus far in the course. You should demonstrate proficiency...Oral AssignmentAudioBusiness Management Skills(DIPMB3_OR_v3A1)Student identification (student to complete)Please complete the fields shaded grey.Student numberOral assignment result (assessor to complete)Result...Activity 1Jack and Jill are married old age pensioners. They have investment assets worth $240,000 and they own their home. Jill dies. Her will leaves her share of the investment assets to Jack. What estate...**Show All Questions**